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more or less :: explanations for certain observations

As the news has turned a dramatic eye on our country’s financial regulatory system, I’ve been puttering around trying to separate the wheat from the chaffe.  For what it is worth, there are a few invalid arguments out there that really get under my skin.

The primary false argument?

“Financial Deregulation caused this economic mess we’re in” - Deregulation didn’t do anything that wasn’t already in place. Taking out the barrier between investment banking and consumer banking had very little effect on the outcome of the mortgage mess. The problem lies with the regulatory structure that didn’t change.

Imagine a huge slate of stone on the ground. When government interferes in the underlying economy it places a pointed stone underneath the slab of stone. The field becomes unbalanced. In order for the econmy to “work”, government attempts to place new stones on top of the large slab so that the economy can rest on the small stone underneath in perfect balance. While you can achieve some sense of parity where the slab is “perfectly” balanced, adding or removing weight at any given point will cause the slab to become imbalanced.

Now the arguments are often construed as a battle between adding stones (regulation) or removing stones (deregulation) on top of the slab. The crux of the argument is that both “sides” of the debate still believe that they can achieve a perfectly balanced slab perpetually so long as the other side doesn’t do anything to muck it up.

The problem is that no one looks to why balancing the slab matters. Simply remove the rock underneath and your slab rests perfectly sound and secure. No need to balance the thing, no need for placing burdens on top of the slab. In essence, remove government from having any regulatory controls and never have to deal with trying to make it work.

The political establishment is largely escaped from the very burdens they impose on everyone. There is no punishment for poor legislating even when the people demand poor legislation. The correlated problem is one where so long as government maintains the power to regulate, it maintains the ability to be influenced by specific demands of the regulated. If so-called liberals truly wanted to end the influence of corporate America in Washington, the right decision is to make Washington powerless to affect the course of the private sector. The right decision liberals would rally for would be a system of complete deregulation where corporate money can have no real influence over political affairs and the political class can have no influence over the private sector.

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  • Omaha.com Got Prettier

    The Omana World Herald unwrapped a new design for Omaha.com. For the most part, I like it. I like the simplicity and organizational structure. I like how local stories have comments available to users. Overall the site feels far less clunky and a step in the right direction for a fairly run-of-the-mill newspaper.

    To say the least, it is leaps and bounds above what most newspapers are doing on the Internet.

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  • In a weird twist, Virgin has shuddered its last music store in New York as the one or two people who actually bought things at the megastore will undoubtedly shed a tear or two.

    I say “weird” in the sense that if we wound back the clock a decade and a half or so ago, it was the indie retailers bemoaning the plague of the megastores and how they were being driven to the brink because they couldn’t compete.

    My. How times have changed. And that is the point. For those who hate the world now, just wait a moment or two - it will change.

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  • Wait for it… wait for it…

    Shit, if this is gonna be that kind of party, I’m gonna stick my dick in the mashed potatoes” - cred

    With all of the hubbub over AIG’s executive pay, you’d think the dipshits at CNN and in the media would at least have half a brain to stop and think about what they are reporting. Then again, it’s all being fed by dipshits in Congress.

    The money quote of the day:

    “Schumer: AIG employees should return bonuses or face high tax”

    I don’t know about Schumer, but the last time I looked at my bonus check, withholding was running me around 40% on bonus monies. So for all of the wanton raving and frothing and foaming at the mouth, the government is going to get most of this money back - just not in the way it expected. Of course, a $600k after-tax bonus would be nice in my bank account. Then again, I don’t really want to pay that person’s tax bill.

    So I’m guessing the bullshit on Capitol Hill will only get deeper as they rush to pass yet-another-dumb-stupid-stupid-stupid law that will have even more dire consequences than the prior law. Unfortunately, Congress is going to have to really cross the line on this one by singling out a single company.

    The only thing that pisses me off even more is those who support these maniacal bailouts. You have absolutely no reason to expect an idealistic outcome when reality (and a ton of real coo-coo for coco-puffs libertarians) told you the outcome was going to be bad. Economics 101 people. Come on.

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    Burning Grey Matter

    So after my post on March 6, I went into a few more trades. I ended up at $999 for about five minutes with nothing open. I thought I saw an opportunity and jumped on it only to have it go backwards on me fast. I’ve just spent the past 4 trading days trying to catch up. At one point, my total equity in my account was down to ~$650 - nearly $340 loss. I was attempting to try out a new hedging strategy that almost ate me alive.

    I was hedging hard, long on the USD/JPY and holding ground. A few stupid mistakes and I was at close to $750 in equity when I started trading tonight. Still down but better than where I was. It has take me about 4 hours of hard trading. My problem is that I was carrying two very heavy, negative trades. So I switched my strategy. I sucked it up and closed down almost 400 pips in losses (over $400). I had open trades going on so my equity wasn’t in that bad of a situation. As I was bouncing around the charts, I noticed I was sitting on the falling side of a right-shoulder so I went to all short on the USD/JPY. After riding it out and resisting temptation, it finally paid off.

    So. As of today, I am out of the market with a total balance of:  $1014.01

    That puts me at a total return since February of 14.18% - only ~4% this week.

    My head hurts.

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  • The Joke Gets Funny

    clipped from www.washingtonpost.com


    DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp <GM.N> on Thursday said its auditors had raised “substantial doubt” about its ability to survive outside bankruptcy if it fails to stem its losses and stop burning cash. The “going concern” warning from the struggling U.S. automaker had been expected, but underscored the stakes for GM as it seeks up to $30 billion in U.S. government aid to restructure outside a court-supervised bankruptcy process.

      blog it
    The hilarity ensues when GM, recipient of bailout funds reportedly being used to keep it out of bankruptcy, is now poised to trip through the door of the bankruptcy court. Oops.

    This is exactly why the government should not be bailing anyone out. And now auditors are telling us what the business community has known for quite a few months now: GM’s cash burn rate is extremely high. GM should have went into bankruptcy months ago and bailout funds have done little to change the short-term prognosis of the company. So tax payers paid a huge chunk of change to push back bankruptcy by a few months. It’s funny. Hilarious.
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  • Good Ol’ Miltie

    Milton Friedman at his Best

    clipped from abcnews.go.com
    Upper-Income Taxpayers Look for Ways to Sidestep Obama Tax-Hike Plan

    President Would Slap More Taxes on Those Who Make Over $250K to Fund Health Care


    A 63-year-old attorney based in Lafayette, La., who asked not to be named, told ABCNews.com that she plans to cut back on her business to get her annual income under the quarter million mark should the Obama tax plan be passed by Congress and become law.


    Obama’s budget proposal calls for $989 billion in new taxes over the next 10 years, most of which will be earned from increased taxes on individuals who make more than $200,000 and from families who make more than $250,000.


    Dr. Sharon Poczatek, who runs her own dental practice in Boulder, Colo., said that she too is trying to figure out ways to get out of paying the taxes proposed in Obama’s plan.


    “I’ve put thought into how to get under $250,000,” said Poczatek. “It would mean working fewer days which means having fewer employees, seeing fewer patients and taking time off.”

      blog it
    We can already see the effects of Obama’s tax plan on the most productive people in the nation - They’re looking at ways to be less productive.

    While some economists and others balk at the Reagan-era Laffer curve, you can actually watch it happen in slow motion. When you tax the living crap out of people, they will eventually become less productive. The incentive - more money - begins to lose value.

    This was a mistake done during the end of the 1920s and into the 1930s Hoover jumped the tax rate up beyond belief and FDR did very little during his Presidential tenure to help the most productive become even more productive.
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  • clipped from abcnews.go.com


    The Obama administration will seek to reinstate the assault weapons ban that expired in 2004 during the Bush administration, Attorney General Eric Holder said today.


    Holder said that putting the ban back in place would not only be a positive move by the United States, it would help cut down on the flow of guns going across the border into Mexico, which is struggling with heavy violence among drug cartels along the border.


    “I think that will have a positive impact in Mexico, at a minimum.” Holder said at a news conference on the arrest of more than 700 people in a drug enforcement crackdown on Mexican drug cartels operating in the U.S.

      blog it
    It would seem that the Obama administration, in all the ways do-gooders like to do, think the American people are, well, stupid. Pitching the assault weapons ban as good for Mexico is also very very stupid. Why?

    The US has a limitation on firearms where most firearms bought or sold in the United States are semi-automatic. A semi-automatic AK-47 is effectively handicapped to the same functionality as a hunting rifle. Sad, but true - something most proponents of assault rifle bans won’t really admit.

    So if this is the case, why would Mexican drug cartels turn to the United States for weapons? The average semi-auto AK-47 can run anywhere from $250 - $600 in the U.S.

    The going price on the world market for a fully automatic AK-47 can be anywhere from $15-$50 in bulk. So you tell me - why the hell would drug cartels buy semi-automatic versions of a gun at a higher price than they would pay for a fully automatic gun?

    Either the Obama administration needs to get their collective heads out of their asses or they truly, deeply, madly do believe we’re a bunch of idiots.
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  • I’ve been toying with an app that has been around for a couple of years now and all I can say is wow. It wasn’t until tonight that I realized just how powerful DabbleDB is.  A few of my previous attempts at using the service ended in frustration. But after monkeying with it for a while, all I can say is that it kicks ass. You can build effective and useful apps in a couple of hours with a bit of poking around. I’ve been able to write about 30% of a home-brew crm for myself in a couple hours.

    While the interface can seem a bit daunting, a little bit of playing will yeild some great results.

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